Leading forecasters are predicting one of the busiest hurricane seasons on record for 2024, a prediction that could prove chaotic for Florida. Hurricane forecasters with Colorado State University called it ‘extremely active’ and predicted the highest number of named storms ever in one season. Other sources also agree it will likely be more hurricanes rather than less.
The forecast from Colorado State University is predicting 23 named storms in 2024, with eleven of them officially becoming hurricanes. Five of those eleven are predicted to become major hurricanes. All of these figures are significantly higher than the average numbers from 1991 to 2020.
According to data from the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, the daily sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic Ocean have been alarmingly high dating back to a spike in March 2023. The recorded temperatures in 2024 so far have been far and away higher than anything recorded for this time of year. Generally speaking, the warmer the water, the longer hurricanes last and the stronger they get.
The forecast is especially worrisome for Flagler Beach, which is simultaneously still rebuilding from previous hurricanes and taking major steps to better prepare for future ones. Like much of coastal Florida, Flagler Beach floods quickly and easily, and is often the hardest-hit area in Flagler County when a hurricane makes direct landfall.
Looking southward, Daytona Beach is aiming to have its storm damage from the 2022 combo of hurricanes Ian and Nicole fully repaired by the end of 2024. Much of the city’s coastal area was severely damaged in those storms, eroding the beach and threatening dozens of buildings and homes. As with many areas the beach has returned to something resembling its previous self, while the investments needed to restore the damaged structures have been gargantuan.
Much of the state is currently dealing with a crisis in keeping up with the costs of staying hurricane-ready. Lee County found out this week that their flood insurance would increase in price by about 25% due to a Federal Emergency Management Association report that the county and city failed to properly qualify for a discount. FEMA is the flood insurance provider for around nine tenths of Floridians who have it, and they incentivize robust flood protection with discounts on premiums.
I’ll believe it when I see it. Sorry but the weather reporters always make a big thing out of nothing most of the time. Just look at the past few years. How many time did they tell us we are getting a hurricane and all we ended up with was a regular rain shower and some wind.