Flagler County, FL – The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, part of NOAA, has issued an updated prediction for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. This new forecast increases the likelihood of an above-normal hurricane season, and here’s what the residents of Flagler County need to know.
Updated Forecasts
Scientists have moved their prediction from a near-normal level of activity to an above-normal level for this year’s hurricane season. Key factors influencing this update include record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures that may offset the typical limiting atmospheric conditions of the ongoing El Nino event.
The new numbers look like this:
- Above-Normal Season: 60% chance, up from May’s 30% prediction.
- Near-Normal Season: 25%, down from May’s 40%.
- Below-Normal Season: 15% chance.
Predictions for Named Storms and Hurricanes
The updated outlook for 2023, spanning the six-month hurricane season ending on Nov. 30, projects:
- 14-21 Named Storms (winds of 39 mph or more).
- 6-11 Hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or more).
- 2-5 Major Hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or more).
NOAA states these ranges with 70% confidence and includes storms that have already formed this season.
Active Start to the Season
So far, the Atlantic basin has seen five storms reaching at least tropical storm strength, including one hurricane. An average season usually delivers 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Climate Factors in Play
Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead hurricane season forecaster, highlighted the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including the record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, as significant influencing factors.
Other Observations
El Nino conditions are currently in effect and are likely to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter. This usually limits tropical activity during the hurricane season, but so far, these limiting conditions have been slow to develop.
Other contributing factors include a below-normal wind shear forecast, slightly below-normal Atlantic trade winds, and a near- or above-normal West African Monsoon.
Preparing for Hurricane Season in Flagler County
The National Weather Service, including Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, emphasizes the importance of accurate and timely forecasts to enable proactive measures.
New tools, such as the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System and the expansion of the Tropical Weather Outlook to seven days, are part of their ongoing commitment to improving forecasting services.
In June, NOAA deployed the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System to enhance hurricane forecasts. It will operate alongside existing models for the 2023 season before becoming NOAA’s premier hurricane forecasting model.
Stay Informed and Prepared
Residents of Flagler County and other vulnerable areas are urged to establish a well-thought-out hurricane plan and stay informed through official channels as this season progresses. This update serves as a reminder of the unpredictable and potentially above-normal activity we might see this year.
More about hurricane season outlooks and preparation can be found at the official NOAA website and local Flagler County emergency services.
