Meteorologists have confirmed Tropical Storm Erin has formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean this week, and is expected to become the first hurricane of the 2025 storm season. According to AccuWeather, Erin is on track to ‘rapidly intensify’ and become a major hurricane. This would have it as a Category 3 or higher.
There have been four named storms thus far in 2025: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter. None of them intensified into hurricanes. The timing of Erin’s formation is generally typical for the formation of the first hurricane in the season.
Currently, Erin is situated near the Cabo Verde Islands off the western coast of Africa. It’s projected to move west across the Atlantic in the direction of the Caribbean islands, before veering north offshore of the United States’ eastern seaboard.
Will Florida Be Impacted?
So what does this mean for Florida residents? Flagler County Emergency Management Director Jonathan Lord stresses a mixture of optimism and preparedness. “While the models keep changing, it is way too early to tell if it really means anything for us, but the last couple of model runs have shown Erin just to probably be less of a concern,” Lord said Monday. The storm is projected to arrive near Puerto Rico around this weekend or early next week.
“We just definitely recommend people just use the impetus of seeing that out there to not worry about it, but to be prepared,” Lord continued. “Make sure your disaster supply kit is up to date, make sure that your emergency plan is in place if you have one. If you don’t have one, talk to your family.”
Where Might Be Affected by Erin
AccuWeather forecasters seem to align with the prediction that Erin isn’t likely to make landfall in Florida. “Erin will be guided along by the northeast trade winds initially and then the clockwise circulation around the massive Bermuda high over the central Atlantic,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “It is the shape of that oceanic high, as well as the approach of a cool front and dip in the jet stream near the Atlantic Coast, that will determine the exact track of the projected major hurricane as it approaches the Atlantic Coast of the United States next week.”
One dataset put forth by AccuWeather listed a low risk of tropical rain or wind impact for the entire Atlantic coast of the United States, with a ‘near-zero’ for the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Keys all the way around to Central America. Most of the Caribbean islands are also low or near-zero risk, while parts of Nova Scotia are projected to have a slightly higher likelihood.
One contributing factor in the 2025 hurricane season is data indicating the Atlantic Ocean has a higher surface temperature than in most other years. Warm waters are conducive to hurricanes, and can aid in the formation and intensification of named storms. According to the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Florida is almost entirely surrounded by waters that are one degree Celsius or more above their average temperature. Furthermore, mid-August to mid-October are statistically known as the busiest stretch in the Atlantic hurricane season.
Chris Gollon is a Flagler County resident since 2004, as well as a staple of the local independent music scene and avid observer of Central Florida politics, arts, and recreation.
