Recent polling shows a trend for the 2024 presidential election that few expected to come into play: Democratic nominee Kamala Harris is closing ground on Republican nominee Donald Trump in Florida. If Harris were to be able to win the Sunshine State, it’d be the first time Florida swung for the Democratic candidate since Barack Obama narrowly won it in 2012.
The best outlook so far for Harris came in a poll by Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research, conducted over the weekend. The poll put her at 45%, just two points behind Trump’s 47%. The presence of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also impacted the results, with him drawing 5% respectively. “The narrowing gap between Trump and Harris is consistent with the tightening we have seen in other states,” said Dr. Kevin Wagner, co-director of the poll and professor at the University of Florida. “If this trend holds, we may see a competitive race in Florida.”
The Latest Polling
That poll was one of four published by the same group over the same span, with two targeting likely voters and the other two going for a group of registered voters. Harris polled two points off Trump in the best showing, and placed three points back in the other three. Still, it may be early to call Florida a battleground state again. Prior to this development, Trump maintained a steady lead of 6-10 points in most major polls over the last couple months. Given, some of those were in a matchup against Joe Biden, who’s no longer running.
Harris’ prospects of pulling off a win in Florida are likely closely tied to the fates of two key ballot measures: recreational marijuana and abortion rights. Both potential amendments need to earn 60% of the vote in order to pass. With support for the two issues traditionally being spearheaded by left-leaning and progressive activists, should the amendments activate any new voting blocks it may result in a sizable boost for Harris as well.
By the Numbers
Donald Trump won Florida in both his 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns, and he now associates with the state more than his previous residence of choice, New York. In 2016 Trump received 49.02% of the vote in Florida against Hillary Clinton’s 47.82%. The Democrats slightly increased their haul in 2020 with Biden’s 47.86%, but Trump increased his figure to 51.22%. The last Democrat to win a statewide election in Florida was Nikki Fried, who was elected Secretary of Agriculture in 2018 by a slim majority. Fried is now the Chair of the Florida Democratic Party. “Never count FLORIDA out!!!”, Fried said on social media after the poll was released this week.
As of July 31st, the Florida Division of Elections lists 5.3 million active registered Republican voters, over a Democratic count of 4.3 million. That’s the largest lead the Republicans have had in the modern political era, but it may not be the entire ballgame. Florida Democrats are counting on 3.5 million registered voters with no party affiliation as a major factor in a potential Harris win.
How Campaign Leaders Are Reacting
So far Trump has yet to hold a campaign rally in Florida since Joe Biden exited the race, having last appeared on July 9th in Doral. His campaign has addressed the speculation about Florida, conveying a confidence that Trump will carry the state. “The issues that will move Florida voters for a decisive Trump victory in Florida this November are all linked to Harris’ weakness, failure, and dangerously liberal record in the White House,” said Trump’s Florida Director Brian Hughes. “Harris makes the life of every Floridian, and every other American, more expensive and less safe.”
Meanwhile, the Harris campaign’s Florida Director Jasmine Burney-Clark contends that an influx of volunteers will carry their efforts to victory. “When we organize we win,” she said. “When we vote we win! Polls continue to be consistent and align with the enthusiasm we’re seeing on the ground at wall to wall packed events across Florida.” The Harris-Walz campaign recently added 22,000 volunteers in Florida, with around two thirds being women.
She’s sneaking up on Fat Elvis…